"if we have any kind of problem of time in the northern hemisphere, we have enough corn." This has been the alarming verdict of Alberto Weisser, head of the direction of Bunge, the presentation last Thursday of the results of the first quarter for U.S. agribusiness and multinational food.
While the basis of questions raised by the financial analysts on conference call of Bunge was bound for the benefit of the forecasts, low corn stocks have also been a concern among agencies for monitoring global food security.
"We need good weather," repeated Weisser, not to mention that the northern hemisphere already has a problem of time.
Some parts of Europe are familiar with abnormally high temperatures and lack of rain. The UK Met Office, warned that March and April could be the driest for 50 years. This is perhaps too early to assign the corn cycle, but do not augured well for a stable summer season.
More commonly called corn in the southern hemisphere, maize affects the prices of other grains and food products sold on the world markets. Its cost and availability affect the volume of food aid that major humanitarian donors are able to source from the United States and elsewhere.
Other developments shortly before and after the press conference of Bunge illustrate the contrast between the rich and poor of the world regions ability to cope with the increase in food prices.
Newly published us spending figures for March consumer dismissed the implications of the price of food. The average American family invests less than 10% of the income of households to food.
The price of gasoline has been rather the Centre of public interest. This explains why the 40% of 2011 U.S. corn crop should be transformed into ethanol, despite the stressful implications for world food stocks.
An analysis of very different consumption was published by the Asian Development Bank, of its annual meeting which starts tomorrow.
Drawing data from 25 developing countries in the region, the Bank concluded that food inflation of just 10% is sufficient to push 64.4 million people below the international poverty line. "Poor households allocate more than 60% of their food consumption," said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee.
Annual inflation of food in early 2011 is as "estimated the number of poor increased due to an increase of 10% of the price of food may have already taken place," cautions against the report. The Bank also noted that prices rise further.
Asia represents two-thirds of global poverty. Africa is the location for the final third and is even more vulnerable to price inflation.
The implication of the analysis of the Asian Development Bank, is that global poverty has increased by more than 100 million due to the skyrocketing prices of food products last year.
Evidence of additional sensitivity in East Africa saw the risk that convent since public unrest in several countries. What started this month Uganda as a peaceful demonstration of the "labour market" over the increase in food prices caused a heavy response by the security forces of President Musoveni.
Responsibility for the supply and demand in the world to feed monitoring lies with an organization of food and Agriculture. The time of the current crisis is clumsy FAO upcoming retirements of his long-standing service Director-General, Jacques Diouf.
The selection result of the process for his replacement to be chosen in July, has now a step forward. Six candidates have issued 4-page statements to promote their credentials.
All candidates are men, none of them from Africa or South Asia where hunger and malnutrition are most acute. Only the candidate of Iraq included any specific mention of right to food in the context of his plans.
Another multilateral body with the power to energize the global food supply is the World Trade Organization. Of the Doha development programme was designed as a new round of trade negotiations to help poor countries in the expansion of exports of agricultural products.
The process is dying for some years. Friday, a new attempt at resuscitation exceeded with the WTO Director General Pascal Lamy lamenting on "a loss of interest by politicians in many settings."
Constructive proposals for global food security last week were thus left to the humanitarian agency, Oxfam International, which published a report with the relevant title: "Who will feed the world?"
The report is faced with the seemingly irreconcilable differences between 500 million small farms around the world developing and industrial agribusiness, greedy land and new markets.
The two can coexist, says Oxfam, by in large investments to the poor." This requires legal guarantees and political rigorous for the rights of poor farmers. However, the report stops to clarify how such conditions could be achieved in the countries of low institutional capacity.
For now, it appears that the only winners of the food crisis are the giants of agribusiness as Bunge, whose profit three months totalled $ 232 million. "This is probably our best first quarter ever in agricultural industries," says executive chef Alberto Weisser Bunge.
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