The dramatic announcement of death may 1 of al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden came too late for most of the Europeans to hear about it in real time. But by the early hours of Monday morning, ordinary citizens and officials in Europe to protect against terror strikes were in full debate about how the murder of Ben Laden could change the activity and the determination of jihadist plotting to strike anywhere in the world.
Perhaps is not surprising that most experts say death of the charismatic leader represents a symbolic blow to extremists wanted for him - and responsible for survivors of al-Qaeda in the region of the Afghanistan and Pakistan with a real challenge on how they operate there in his absence. But analysts add that he probably does not change the mechanics of Islamist terror threatens the world today. (See obituary time on Ben Laden).
"" It is likely to have the greatest direct impact to the upper echelons of the command of al-Qaeda, which will create more problems for its leaders ride very spectacular, complex and well organised attacks around the world following the attacks of September 11 ".says an official of European security which works in close collaboration with the intelligence services. "But the vast majority of plots or strikes that see us in the world [these days] is the type produced by small cells of local cooperatives, contacts with al-Qaeda [in the Pakistani border region] are minimal - usually with medium-level characters.or even not at all. "The death of Osama bin Laden can have an emotional impact in the short term on these distant extremists, but that do not alter the manner in which they operate."
A French official of fight against terrorism is in agreement. "Ben Laden was more effective in projecting the ideology of separate al-Qaeda, and disparate radical Assembly on what extremists consider its unique moral authority," he commented. "Who went now and with it the dedication with which jihadi organizations around the world swore their allegiance." None of those will turn its back on al-Qaeda or stop using terrorism as the main arm in their fight. "But there is no single leader will all seek and devote their efforts to, which represents a real change." (See "remember 9/11: the evolution of Ground Zero.")
Yet, the official said it is a largely symbolic and psychological factor. He noted that al-Qaeda has never been as centralized and structured as many people will once believed. The functioning of its followers and supporters around the world - and - in Europe became more independent, especially since the military operation led by NATO and forced to Qaeda al - out his former Afghan refuge to refuge in Pakistan. In recent years, say experts, the standard cell of terror in Europe has evolved to become smaller, often self-constituted and usually gets minimal advice or direction of mentors in Southeast Asia. In some cases, a member of the single cell may have obtained all the training and education required during a visit to Pakistan and relies on the Mount of plots over time when it is returned.
This seems to be the case with a trio of suspects arrested in Germany on 29 April they were allegedly preparing test homemade explosives for planned attack. Three men - one of the who had received training in a camp of al-Qaeda - last year in Pakistan had been under police surveillance for six months and had allegedly discussed targeting of public transport in a strike. Scores of cells that have staged attacks or been thwarted in Europe drawing over the last decade share similar profiles - and most received direct assistance limited to al-Qaeda or radical directly linked to it.
Another example is the three extremists suspected arrested in Norway in July 2010 on the suspicion that they intended to make bombs for use on indeterminate targets abroad. This group was in contact with a leader of al-Qaeda since killed in Pakistan. That the leader had developed plots similar bombing in motion - a Manchester, England and another of the New York subway that has been busted in 2009 - in a trio of planned strikes to operate independently one another and with little other directives beyond his initial instructions. Most cells, authorities say, have even these comments of high-level al-Qaeda.
"Al-Qaeda is essential as a source of inspiration - and, sometimes, with the formation and direction, says French official." "" But what the radicals in Europe and elsewhere in the world are finding and the use of the resources of the indoctrination and terror on the internet today are more dangerous to us than what came them from Pakistan, much less than bin Laden or his circle of commanders. ?
Again, the staff of Osama bin Laden force as a symbolic figure and inspiration of fans, including many of those who is never became active in the Jihad, raises the risk that some of those who can now find a sufficient motivation in his death to vengeance for her through the attacks. However, this factor of revenge is probably not a game changer, some suggest. (See the photos of the offensive by the US Marines in Afghanistan).
"This is a concern, but I would say if you're involved in, or even to consider in the first violent jihad place, having one more excuse to justify that with will not change much,", explains the European official. "With the 10 years since September 11 on the horizon and other factors also imminent, we have already entered a period quite tense for possible terrorism prior to the assassination of Osama bin Laden." His death adds a bit of this tension, but not a large part. In addition, if someone who had been decided the attacker is now even more eager to do so, it might be the emotion extra and fury that will make them a little more vulnerable to tipping their hand. ?
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