It was impossible to determine the exact timing of the transformation, but at the time that the Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has left the podium after his first big Wednesday Press Conference, it had morphed into a lame duck. The problem was not so that he could put his plans for re-election next year, but, as some members of his own circle admit now, the President appeared to be of wooing a constituency of one man - Prime Minister Vladimir Putinwhich will decide only if Medvedev stays or goes.
This is not how the dynamics between them has recently been judged. Perhaps naively, many adherents of Medvedev had begun to believe that the President was not only an independent leader but a possible rival of Putin in the presidential race. They based this view on a series of spats heated more and more between them, with the most virulent from March 21, when Putin invectives West for the bombardment of the Libya. (Watching a viral video of Medvedev).
The same day, Medvedev donned a jacket made of leather with the emblem "Chief Commander" and went before the cameras to defend the opposite point of view. Top of page Ministers falls quickly in line behind him, and a rift appeared to show in the political elites as officials began to list to one or the other leader. At this time, Medvedev camp members had already made their vision of the 2012 vote clearly. Igor Yurgens, a presidential adviser and the President of a think tank headed by Medvedev, said in January that Putin should not yet executed, such as "everyone is tired of watching the same face".
But Evgeny Gontmakher, a member of the Council of reflection on the Institute of contemporary development, Medvedev said now that the game is over. "There was this idea that Medvedev could land of thin air and introduce American competition concepts in the Russian political system." It was a stupid idea, "he told time." "Medvedev objectives and plans have faced very severe limitations that were clearly him recently." He refused to specify how exactly they had been clearly, saying that "limitations are related to the fact that [Medvedev] has no political force, no party can count on."
Putin also has a solid base as President of the Russia United, party which dominates the bureaucracy and virtually every body elected in the country. "Everything said Putin, United Russia will do," said Gontmakher. "If Putin tells their supporting Medvedev [then], it is what it will do." If Putin says no, then Medvedev will just be excluded. This is the reality. ?
In the search for his own political base, Medvedev could turn to the right Russia, a pro-Kremlin party, which holds a minority in both houses of the Parliament of the Russia. Last year, some of its leading members even created an alliance of bureaucrats and politicians to encourage policies of Medvedev, offering themselves as a base of support. But Medvedev refuses to have links with the Group and on Wednesday, the leader of the fair Russia, Sergei Mironov, was stripped of his seat as Chairman of the upper House of Parliament, steal the Party of its highest political office. Oddly, Medvedev endorsed the move during the Wednesday News Conference, saying it was "nothing out of the ordinary."
"Sooner or later every man career draws to a close, and which also includes the President," Medvedev said the 800 journalists. It was a tone of defeatism does step to be heard Putin's position in this election cycle. (See pictures of Putin and Medvedev ski holiday).
May 6, the Prime Minister reaffirmed his role in the United Russia by creating what he calls the Russian people's Front, an alliance of trade unions and civil society groups wants to ensure support for the party and, by association for Putin himself. It was an obvious pre-election manoeuvre, and the Wednesday Press Conference, everyone expected Medvedev to some retort, to announce his own political movement or suggest some counterweight to the domination of the United Russia. There was nothing of the sort.
"Even the more modest expectations have left down,"said Masha Lipman, a political analyst in Moscow."" Not only was rhetorical dry Medvedev, Lipman said, but he appeared to have been purged of any challenge to Putin. Even its position on the Libya was closer in line with the Prime Minister, and when he asked about his intention to run for re-election, Medvedev recited a series of platitudes virtually meaningless - "we do our work to achieve our goals" - before indicating that the decision on his candidacy would be made "to". relatively short term. ?
But, judging by the headlines of Thursday morning, the Russian press has not overdue to take the decision for him. RBC Daily financial newspaper has a history of lead, saying that investors - bookmakers of world politics - had placed their bet on Putin to return to the Presidency in 2012, whereas the Vedomosti daily proclaimed in a title"Medvedev held his first press conference as if it were his last."
In the coming months, the Russians will look for the official announcement of the candidate of the Russia United for voting in 2012, and Gontmakher said he will probably come soon, although it now appears as a formality. "In Russia a President cannot be allowed to be a lame duck for a long time." It also creates much confusion among elites.... It has therefore been solved. "It is always possible that Medvedev will remain on as President, but only if Putin approves him the way he did in 2008, when he gives the Kremlin to Medvedev. In any case, one thing is already clear: the decision will be up to Putin.
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