With the announcement of national elections, on 3 July, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of Thailand, has placed its destiny in the hands of voters and develop democracy in development which can be a perilous test. At 8 a.m. Tuesday morning, Parliament was formally dissolved after 30 months under Abhisit that have been marked by bloody events, economic crisis and deepening social and political polarization. The elections will be the Thailand second since a military coup without bloodshed in 2006, and rumors of another military intervention have been undermined in recent weeks. Once considered a beacon of stability in Southeast Asia, the Thailand has been in almost constant unrest since late 2005.
The elections will be "decide what direction the country takes... should walk to come... or to dwell on conflicts," Abhisit said in announcing the dissolution of Parliament. The country is polarized in recent years many analysts have said that the elections will not succeed to put an end to the bitterness. However, Ukrist Pathmanand, Professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, is more optimistic. "This is really a new beginning for our democratic process", Ukrist said, adding that he did not believe that the military will directly intervene in the result.
Is a series of parties challenging the election, but the pit of mainly will race Abhisit and his democratic party against opposition Pheu Thai Party, led at distance by the wealthy businessman Thaksin Shinawatra. The elected Prime Minister who was ousted by the army in 2006, Thaksin living abroad, who had fled after being found guilty of corruption and sentenced to a penalty of two years in prison, that he was not used. The Pheu Thai campaign slogan is "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts," and party cadres acknowledge that Thaksin should appoint his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, a business woman with no political experience, as a candidate of the party for Prime Minister. (Read in time Q & A with Thaksin Shinawatra.)
The race is too close to call. A survey conducted by the University of the assumption in April showed Democrats with a thin razor with 26.4 percent advance, Pheu Thai to 25.5% and smaller parties, collecting of 15.4%. Undecided voters were the largest group of 32.7%. "There are so many factors that could change the way in which the voters feel between now and the election day it is simply too difficult to predict," said a member of the Government who asked not be named because the electoral laws prohibited him from comment before his campaign has officially ". started Tuesday afternoon.
Thaksin is supported by most of the members of the shirt red, named after the color they wear, which organized mass demonstrations against Abhisit to Bangkok in 2009 and 2010, requiring him to resign and call a new poll. The protests became violent, and in May 2010, the army dispersed the red shirts, some were armed and burned buildings more than 30 in Bangkok, as they fled. Eighty eleven people, mainly red shirts, but also a few soldiers, were killed in two months in length disorders. Although the red shirts have been able to mobilize more than 100,000 demonstrators sometimes, a recent survey by the Asia Foundation indicates that only 14% of the interviewees expressed its support for the group. (See pictures of the red shirt protests).
ABHISIT became Prime Minister with a parliamentary vote in December 2008, after a court dissolved another party supported by Thaksin who won the previous election for electoral fraud. ABHISIT took office, as the global economic crisis has hit the Thailand, but he led the country through the worst of the recession and presided over a strong recovery in 2010 which saw the country to register his highest rate of growth in 15 years at 7.5%. Nevertheless, disparities in wealth, regional differences, the feeling of injustice on how it is passed to the power and the loyalty of Thaksin left sections of the country, particularly the poor Northeast, strongly opposed to Abhisit.
Thaksin, who speaks of supporters through speech by video link, most often from its main base in Dubai, asked voters to back to the Thailand by electing the members of his party, while promising free government-issued credit cards to farmers and drivers of taxiet with promises of debt cancellation. It draws opposition on the part of many urban middle class voters who protest against all his populism and believe that it is an authoritarian traditionalists, who claim it is unfair of constitutional monarchy in the country and the members of the army who fear he will seek to take revenge on the coup of 2006 ousted him.
In its final year in power Thaksin to constants street demonstrations of opponents called the yellow shirts of the color of their costumes, and who wanted a military intervention or Royal to remove him. After his eviction, red shirts were organized with repeated protests demanding new elections. Most polls that Thai most are tired color street demonstrations. For democracy of the Thailand, the question is whether if the outcome of the next election is accepted by those who lose or be used as a spark for a new cycle of violent demonstrations further destabilize the country.
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